Chris Lee & Partners Ltd

Taking Stock – 18 December 2025

Edward Lee writes:

We recently held our final investment committee meeting for 2025, focused on where we believe the best risk-adjusted returns are likely to come from during 2026. It was not a meeting about what has worked best over the past three years. It was a meeting about what happens next, and where the best reward for risk now sits.

Over recent years, artificial intelligence has dominated market narratives and investor behaviour. Since the release of ChatGPT three years ago, parts of the US technology sector have delivered extraordinary returns. Some companies have risen more than 1,000%.

This led to the NASDAQ surging over 100% over the past three years, and at face value that performance reinforces the idea that the United States remains one of the best places to find growth. 

But when analysed carefully, these returns have come from just a small number of very large companies, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the NASDAQ’s value.

These companies are global businesses with real earnings, strong balance sheets, and genuine scale.

So as our investment committee meeting progressed, we all agreed that our concern is not that artificial intelligence is not the future; the concern is that these companies valuations have moved ahead of what even the best companies can deliver in the near term.

This is how bubbles tend to form.

They are not built on worthless assets or empty promises. They are built on good ideas taken too far, too quickly, with too much capital chasing the same outcome.

With rising company performance expectations, along with strong share price gains driven by a small number of companies, investors can lose sight of risk simply because recent returns have been so strong.

This does not mean the US market is about to collapse. It simply means share prices may stop rising as quickly, or even ease back, while company earnings catch up.

With less room for upside surprise and more room for disappointment, the focus needs to lean more towards risk-adjusted returns to ensure that investors are being adequately compensated for the risks they are taking.

As we look through that lens, the opportunity outside the United States looks more attractive than it has for some time.

European markets stand out for different reasons to the United States. Share prices are lower, dividends are higher, and returns come from a wider mix of industries rather than a small group of large technology companies. Because of that, European companies do not need everything to go right to perform reasonably well. Even a steady economic recovery and stable profits could be enough to deliver acceptable returns for investors.

Asia Pacific provides a different kind of diversification. Australia and parts of Asia are supported by commodities, infrastructure spending, population growth, and regional trade. These markets are at a different stage of the economic cycle and are far less tied to the small group of AI-driven stocks that now dominate US markets.

This is not a call to avoid the United States. The US remains home to many of the world’s best businesses, and artificial intelligence will be a genuine long-term driver of productivity and profits. But markets that have already priced in near-perfect outcomes which do not deliver the best risk-adjusted returns from that point forward.

While global markets try to tackle these high valuations on a select number of companies, the more interesting story for New Zealand investors is closer to home.

A few months ago, we wrote that, far from collapsing, the New Zealand economy was laying the groundwork for recovery. That assessment was based on economic indicators rather than headlines. While confidence was weak and the news flow was negative, the underlying data was pointing in a more positive direction. That gap continues to close.

The clearest evidence of that shift is inflation. Headline inflation is back inside the Reserve Bank’s target band, and the underlying pressure in the economy is easing. Businesses are less inclined to push through price increases, wage growth has slowed, and rents are falling.

This matters because confidence does not return while inflation is rising. People will tolerate weak growth, but they will not tolerate eroding purchasing power and ever-increasing prices. Bringing inflation under control has been the main achievement of this cycle, and this underpins everything else.

Data released this week supports that view. New Zealand’s economy grew in the September quarter, ending the period of contraction earlier this year. 

While annual growth remains weak, the lift was across most industries, which is exactly what you would expect at the early stage of a recovery. 

It does not signal a boom, but it does confirm that activity has stabilised and the economy is beginning to turn.

Now that inflation has stabilised, financial conditions have quietly shifted in a more supportive direction, with mortgage rates well below their peak and the New Zealand dollar being lower than forecast. Monetary policy is no longer acting as a brake on the economy, and the Reserve Bank has likely finished cutting the Official Cash Rate.

The relief, however, takes time to be felt. New Zealand’s fixed-rate mortgage structure means lower rates flow through gradually rather than all at once. Many households fixed to manage risk, which delayed the recovery.

As these loans reset, the average mortgage rate people are paying will reduce, even if the advertised mortgage rates have stopped falling. This puts real cash into households pockets, which will hopefully be spent. 

Households have so far responded very conservatively. Rather than spending aggressively as rates have fallen, many have continued to reduce debt. That has frustrated those hoping for a faster rebound, but it has strengthened balance sheets. 

The labour market tells a similar story. It remains soft, but it is no longer deteriorating. Unemployment appears close to its peak. Job advertisements have started turning higher and employers are holding onto staff because they know how hard rehiring can be. Wage growth has also slowed, slowing inflation.

Spending behaviour is also shifting. Card spending data shows discretionary categories have stabilised, services spending is rising, and tourism and recreation are improving.

Tourism deserves a particular mention as visitor arrivals are now close to 95% of pre-Covid levels, even though China remains well below trend. That tells us two things. First, the tourism recovery has largely happened without China. Second, there is still upside when China does eventually return.

The rural economy continues to do well. Dairy and meat prices have held up better than expected. A milk price around $9.65 provides real cash flow, which has provided farmers with the funds to reduce debt (rather than spend aggressively), delaying the flow-through to the wider economy. That will not last forever. Stronger balance sheets eventually lead to spending, particularly in regional New Zealand, which is already ahead of the cities in this cycle.

The housing market is becoming more stable. While prices have largely stopped rising, sales activity is picking up from very low levels. New rents have eased, which helps keep inflation down and supports household cashflow. This level of stability is enough to lift confidence. House prices do not need to keep rising to achieve that, although forecasts suggest prices could increase by around 5% in 2026.

Residential construction remains at low levels, even as population growth recovers. Building consents are starting to rise, and early signs suggest activity is beginning to improve. Some builders are already reporting that work is starting to return.

Card spending data for architects, engineers, and surveyors is also improving, supporting the view that the construction sector should gradually recover. Even internet search activity around renovations and building has picked up. These are early signals, but they are the right ones.

Despite this, tax revenue has come in below expectations, while government spending is slightly higher. As a result, the operating balance, which measures whether the government is running a day-to-day surplus or deficit, is deeper in deficit than forecast, causing NZ to continually borrow money to keep the lights on.

The path back to surplus is now tight, with the first forecasted surplus now delayed until June 2029, rather than the original target of May 2028.

From today’s starting point, there is a real risk that surplus slips into 2030 unless future budgets are tighter, further restricting growth.

This suggests the government is more likely to limit spending than take on additional borrowing beyond what is already forecast. Net government debt is expected to rise from $180bn to $246bn over the next four years.

As a result, this is not an economic cycle that a Budget can fix. There is limited capacity, and little justification, for further borrowing to drive growth while debt levels remain elevated.

That means the recovery will need to come from easing inflation, improved household cashflow, stronger business conditions, and a lift in consumer confidence.

Markets have already begun to look ahead. The debate is no longer about how much further interest rates fall, but about when they eventually rise again, with some banks prematurely rising rates and removing interest rate specials. 

This shift always feels uncomfortable when growth still looks weak, but it is a familiar pattern to ensure stability. By the time confidence returns fully, the conversation has usually moved on.

So the groundwork for recovery has been laid. Inflation is under control, financial conditions have shifted in a more favourable direction, and household and farm balance sheets are strengthening. Combined with a recovery in tourism and stabilising house prices, confidence is beginning to follow.

The next phase of the cycle will not look like the last one, which is why positioning investor portfolios for what comes next matters far more than chasing what has already worked.

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Office hours

Our office closes for the year this Friday 19 December. We re-open on 7 January. We wish readers a safe and Merry Christmas.

Chris Lee & Partners Limited

Taking Stock 11 December 2025 

Recap of the year

Fraser Hunter Recaps 2025

2025 began in difficult shape. The economy was soft, confidence was low and households were still absorbing the impact of the fastest rate-hiking cycle in a generation. GDP slipped again early in the year, unemployment continued to rise and the sharp slowdown in migration removed a key source of momentum. For much of the first half, it felt as though the economy was still moving backwards.

The tone shifted meaningfully as the year progressed. Inflation fell back inside the Reserve Bank’s target range, interest rate cuts began to take effect and business confidence improved sharply. By November, the ANZ Business Outlook survey recorded its highest confidence reading in more than a decade, supported by firmer expectations around future activity. 

Consumer confidence also lifted from earlier lows, suggesting households were becoming more comfortable with the economic backdrop. Markets steadied, the housing downturn ended and fixed income began to behave more normally again. By late 2025, the early signs of renewal were visible across multiple fronts.

Anecdotally, sentiment appears to have improved around the summer bbq as well. After a cautious year, people have entered December seemingly both relieved and happy to be busy. Activity picked up heading into Christmas, and many businesses reported stronger forward pipelines running well into the new year. The mood was not exuberant, but it was clearly better than it had been for some time.

New Zealand also stands out internationally. While several major developed economies spent 2025 slowing toward recession, New Zealand had already been through one. Many of the pressures still building overseas were absorbed here earlier, giving the economy a head start in the adjustment process. Our small scale and flexible labour markets make us sensitive to global conditions, but they also allow us to adapt more quickly. We enter 2026 from a lower and more defensive base, with more of the hard work already behind us.

Recent company outlooks reinforce this shift. Earnings guidance has stabilised across a wide range of sectors and early economic data shows a lift in sentiment among businesses and households. These are early signals rather than declarations of strength, but they align with a base case for 2026 that is more positive than we have seen for some time. Growth is likely to be steady rather than sharp, but the direction is improving and the foundations look more balanced than they have in several years.

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The New Zealand share market delivered a steady but uneven year in 2025. The NZX50 Gross Index has returned just 2% for the year to date (includes dividends), but this headline figure hides a much stronger improvement beneath the surface. After being down nearly -10% in April, the broader market recovered strongly as confidence improved and interest rates fell.

The improvement becomes more prevalent as you move away from the large caps. The portfolio index, which caps large companies at 5% of the index, has gained +8%, while mid-caps rose around +18% and small-caps +25%, responding early to falling rates and improving confidence.

Companies on the local market tend to fall into three broad groups. Income producers, including the gentailers, key infrastructure assets, and parts of the listed property sector provide defensive and tax-efficient income. A second group is made up of structural growth companies whose prospects depend more on market opportunity and execution than on domestic cycles. 

The third group consists of cyclical businesses tied to housing, tourism, construction and freight, which usually lead recoveries when confidence turns. In a concentrated index like the NZX50, these differences matter, and a well-constructed portfolio can look very different from the benchmark. Depending on risk appetite, there are opportunities across all three groups, and 2025 showed that returns do not rely solely on the largest index names.

Conditions improved late in the year as lower interest rates eased household pressures and helped earnings expectations stabilise. Listed property, utilities and several cyclical sectors began to recover as confidence returned. Fonterra’s planned divestment and upcoming capital return also added a lift, particularly for regional communities. A weaker New Zealand dollar supported exporters and continues to favour offshore earners heading into 2026.

Lower interest rates also shifted investor behaviour, with some households moving out of term deposits and back toward longer-term investments. This trend is likely to continue in 2026 as the economic backdrop improves. Growth is expected to recover gradually, earnings forecasts are firmer and financial conditions are now supportive rather than restrictive. 

Opportunities are likely to come from the broader parts of the market rather than the largest index names, but New Zealand shares remain a core source of income, diversification and long-term value for most investors.

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Fixed-income conditions improved significantly through 2025 as interest rates moved into clearly stimulatory territory. The sharp increases of the prior two years have now unwound, and the bond market has settled back into a more normal pattern.

Lower yields have pushed many existing bonds above par, but for most investors who hold to maturity, the more meaningful change has been the lower rates now available for new investments. The most noticeable adjustment has come through deposit rates. As older term deposits matured through 2024 and 2025, reinvestment rates stepped down sharply, narrowing the gap between cash and high-quality bonds and restoring the appeal of fixed interest within diversified portfolios.

The Reserve Bank has made it clear that the cutting cycle is effectively complete, and wholesale rates have already moved off their lows as markets adjust to a more cautious policy stance. This suggests that the major capital gains from falling yields are now behind us. From here, returns should come mainly from income rather than price movements, marking a shift back to a steadier and more typical phase of the cycle.

Investors should remain disciplined. When rates fall to low levels, the temptation is to stretch for higher yield, but this often means taking on more risk than intended. A measured approach is more appropriate at this point: focus on quality, stay diversified and be patient with reinvestment decisions.  

Looking into 2026, the backdrop for fixed interest is more stable and predictable than it has been for several years. Issuer confidence should continue to improve as conditions settle, and this may lead to a healthier flow of new deals at pricing that better reflects underlying risk. 

Bonds are again positioned to deliver steady income, credit markets are functioning well, banks are reporting low levels of impairment and the asset class has returned to its core role as a portfolio stabiliser. 

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The listed property sector was one of the stronger performers in 2025, gaining +12.75% for the year to date, well ahead of the broader market. Falling interest rates played a major part, helping stabilise valuations, ease funding pressures and lifting investor confidence. Several trusts also used the year to repair balance sheets, leaving the sector in a more workable position than it has been for some time.

Valuations now appear largely reset. The sector continues to trade at a discount to underlying asset values, and gross yields remain appealing relative to fixed interest alternatives. Dividend guidance through the most recent reporting season was steady, and although wholesale funding rates have potentially stopped falling, the refinancing of older, higher-cost debt will still deliver gradual relief through 2026.  From here, performance will depend more on rental income, occupancy and good management rather than on further shifts in interest rates. This is a healthier footing for the sector.

Residential property remains important for household confidence even though it has little direct impact on listed property returns. Prices stabilised through 2025 after one of the biggest downturns in decades and are expected to rise modestly as mortgages reprice at lower rates. Affordability, however, is still stretched, and it is difficult to justify a sharp rebound while budgets remain tight. Banks are also doing their part, lifting house price forecasts and borrower incentives.

Overall, the property sector has moved out of the worst part of the cycle. Listed property in particular now offers a clearer combination of yield, stability and improving fundamentals than it did a year ago. Residential property is no longer weighing on sentiment, even if structural affordability challenges remain. Together, these trends point to a more settled environment for 2026, with listed property well positioned to deliver income and play a steady role within diversified portfolios.

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Global sharemarkets (+21.3% YTD) delivered strong results over 2025, helped by easing interest rates, resilient earnings and improving business sentiment. A key shift has been the broadening of the rally.  

Performance is no longer concentrated solely in the large US technology companies that have dominated recent years, with healthcare, industrials and consumer services also contributing meaningfully. Several major markets outside the US performed strongly and continue to trade at more reasonable valuation levels than the US.

The US continues to be strong (S&P500 + 14.5%) but has more recently lagged the rest of the world (MSCI World ex-US +29.2% YTD). The Australian benchmark returned +8.5%, but like NZ, performance under the hood showed strength, with the Australian mid and small caps (ie outside the top 50) up +19% YTD. 

For New Zealand investors, a weaker NZ dollar amplified offshore returns. This has been a tailwind, but one that can reverse quickly. A normalisation of the NZD/USD towards levels seen in 2022, around 70 cents, would reduce the NZD value of unhedged US investments by close to 20 percent. While currency moves are difficult to predict, maintaining a mix of hedged and unhedged exposure remains a sensible way to smooth volatility.

Valuations in global markets remain elevated in parts. The technology giants appear priced for very strong future earnings, but so far those earnings have continued to justify market expectations. Beyond the US, many regions offer broader sector exposure at more moderate valuation multiples.

Australia continues to remain a useful way to complement New Zealand portfolios via the banks, resources and other sectors not available domestically.

Looking ahead, none of the risks highlighted a year ago have disappeared, but the broadening in market leadership, stronger corporate balance sheets and more reasonable valuations outside the US provide a degree of support. For most investors, retaining some diversified exposure to offshore markets continues to be one of the most effective ways to manage risk and participate in long-term growth.

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For New Zealand investors, 2025 has been challenging, but we enter 2026 on a more stable footing. The most difficult phase appears to be over, confidence is gradually returning, and financial conditions are no longer a headwind. While valuations remain elevated and could temper future returns, market leadership is broadening beyond a select few companies. This shift, alongside more resilient economic fundamentals, points to a more balanced and hopefully settled environment as we look ahead.

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Office Closure Dates

Our office will close on Friday 19 December and reopen on Wednesday 7 January. During this period we will continue to monitor urgent emails, cash management withdrawals and share transactions. If you have an urgent matter that requires a call, please email us with your phone number and we will return your call.

Chris Lee & Partners

Taking Stock 4 December 2025

Santana Minerals

RARELY has it been appropriate to praise a law firm but the well-established Christchurch firm of solicitors, Lane Neave, deserves a large vote of thanks.

For all applicants for resource consents, and all investors in the projects seeking consent, Lane Neave has provided some excellent commentary and analysis in its summary of the Fast-track application of Santana Minerals, to mine private land at Bendigo/Ophir, near Cromwell.

The summary of around 64 pages of editorial comment is easy reading, loaded with information, but of additional value as it outlines the processes and law that will guide the Fast-track Panel.

As such, it provides valuable insight into the issues that are relevant, as New Zealand adapts to new law, and a new form of bureaucracy.

For example, the new Fast-track rules name the parties who are entitled to be consulted. The likes of Iwi, Fish and Game, Forest and Bird, The Environmental Defence Society, the local council and those on adjoining land must be invited to consult.

Adjoining land means abutting the land, not hamlets 20 kilometres up the road.

Lane Neave reviews the Santana application in detail. It runs through the main issues to be addressed by an application to mine.

Issues like dust, noise, floodlights, and road traffic are all relatively easily discussed, explaining how relevant guidelines should be met, in this case by Santana. It details the plan to conform with the guidelines.

For example, noise levels would be accurately measured and compared with legal maximum noise; dust would be sprinkled and mitigated by planting; traffic would be enumerated and if necessary, accommodated by improving roads.

In general, consent would be granted only if the economic benefits clearly outweigh legitimate environmental concerns, after adjusting the concern for the proposed remedial work, proposed value added to the land, and proposed compensatory plans.

For example, if an applicant proposed to destroy a well-used cycle track but planned to build a better one nearby, the nett damage might be nil.

After reading the summary, I deduced that the areas of most concern to the Fast-track Panel for Santana would be:

- The plan to prevent the mine-affected water from entering waterways.

- The plan to protect residual, toxic waste from escaping the tailing dam, in the event of a disaster.

- The plan to protect any important flora or fauna, like lizards or rare plants.

- The plan to maintain and improve access to historical gold mining sites.

- The plan to rehabilitate the mining pit, leaving it in a different, but better condition, as each stage of the mining is completed.

In Santana’s case the economic benefits are obvious and will not trouble the panel, or anyone with the motivation to stop New Zealand’s destructive plan of ever greater borrowing.

Assuming gold prices at 80% of the current (rising) spot price, the project would pay the NZ Government around $2 billion over 14 years, employ directly around 350 people at high average wages, and indirectly employ another estimated 400 people. The cost might be a (temporary) scar in a distant valley, if the project were supervised carefully, as promised.

Santana would become one of New Zealand’s most profitable (top 10, in profits) public companies, with a base in Central Otago, and would be a popular destination for tourists.

It would have to accept environmental responsibility and become a devoted corporate citizen. It would be approached for sponsorship for many Central Otago ventures and has already agreed to sponsor the 2026 world panning event, in Cromwell.

The extraordinarily detailed application has engaged with around 15 acknowledged specialists to consider the plan and assist in the developing of strategies to avoid, or remedy, or offset changes to the environment.

The Lane Neave legal summary offers additional insight by discussing what the Fast-track panel must consider, and what it may not consider.

It points out that the law defines whose opinions must be considered, clearly sidelining the views of attention-seekers or irrelevant people.

It provides detail on one local iwi’s representations, and on how it should (and must) be consulted. I see this as an example of respectful consultation, at best practice levels.

The iwi group is Ka Runaka consulted through its mana whenua organisations, Aukaha.

This group represents seven Papatipu Runanga, collectively Ka Runaka.

Santana for eight years has had a steering committee comprising four Aukaha representatives with a focus on the Clutha river. 

It has led to the sharing of preliminary technical reports for discussions around the Fast-track process.

Communication remains active and collaborative and has focussed on environment, culture, heritage, legacy, mapping and the importance of relationship building and transparency.

The context of this might be framed by the iwi belief that the Crown has not honoured its promises to Ka Runaka to play a cultural role with the Clutha river and Lake Dunstan, after the changes made when the Clyde Dam became the focal point of a hydro-electric scheme.

It seems to illustrate how Santana Minerals has been careful to honour the intentions of the Fast-track process, consulting extensively with relevant parties, such as Ka Runaka, and other respected, worthwhile groups

The Lane Neave report politely pointed out that such parties had rights to consultation but have not been vested with the power of veto, by the Fast-track Act.

The Fast-track Approvals Act considers all the political environmental and issues, the proposed plan to address and remedy issues, and also the compensatory proposals, where there is no remedy.

The latter may explain Santana’s proposal to grant the Department of Conservation in the area a large sum for up to ten years, to be used as DOC sees fit, in the area.

Some would go towards monitoring Santana’s environmental commitments.

Those with a genuine science-based concern ought to read the summary and follow up by reading the relevant sections of the 9,400 pages of expert science-based papers that explain the plan.

Throughout the Fast-track process there will be shrill stuff from attention-seekers and those who do not believe that economic benefits offset large earthworks and a dam in a distant valley.

Many of the reporters for Stuff, TVNZ, and the Otago Daily Times, will remain excited about the potential for headlines from talking to the most emotionally-charged activists and opponents.

Expect to read of people glueing their hands to the highway or baring their backsides in protest.

Neither the government nor the Fast-track panel will find this relevant. Others will display good taste and avert their eyes.

It remains to be seen whether such media coverage would attract an audience.

The Fast-track panel will offer its decision in the second quarter of 2026, after consideration of the benefits of the project weighed against temporary or permanent environmental change, as revealed in the consent application.

Government Policies

THE government released two new policies last month, both subjects relevant to readers of Taking Stock:

1. It will release councils from the implied sole liability for poorly built (and council approved) houses.

2. It will ramp up KiwiSaver contributions from both the saver and the employer to reach 12% in coming years, a figure that at headline level is similar to the Australian formula which has so inflated the Australian sharemarket, building paper wealth.

The new responsibility for building failures will be nailed to the party or parties that failed, the cost borne by compulsory insurances and bonds, putting the cost on all errant parties.

I foresee a problem in the insurance policy and the bond.

One of my extended family has owned for 40 years an Australian company that provides such insurance, selling to builders in Victoria. His company then mitigates liability by buying reinsurance from what used to be a range of international reinsurers.

The problem today is that there is hardly any such reinsurance available, forcing him and his clients (the builders) to pay ever-greater premiums to obtain insurance. The public pay ever more for the policies.

Those that insure have not found it viable to cover such immense liability at an affordable cost.

Will the NZ government itself, or the various local councils, need to underwrite policies, as remedial costs soar and policy premiums soar?

Of course, the root problem of poor leaky houses is not unrelated to government decisions, the skill of the builders, and the skill of the under-resourced inspectors.

Many will recall when NZ chose to allow untreated, or poorly treated soft wood (pine, not Douglas Fir) to be used for frames. Fletchers would have files that might be useful to inspect.

Kiwisaver

THE KiwiSaver industry has had design flaws, poor selling behaviour, and greedy fund managers, from its inception.

The industry is now facing huge, often repeat, requests for cash withdrawals from clients who generally have been made poor by the extreme cost of housing ownership and rentals, and by the falling number of job opportunities for those in the retail, hospitality and entertainment industries. These people need to survive by chewing on their savings.

The bite this makes in savings will be larger because of the large level of students whose reading and arithmetic levels are not likely to appeal to potential employers in the public sector. Employers are getting choosier.

All of this explains why so many have stopped contributing to KiwiSaver and are learning how to game this system to gain permission to withdraw.

Nor does the industry add to its appeal when its most public faces display a belief that KiwiSavers should retain a pool to subsidise social services and public assets. Explain that to a saver.

KiwiSaver is the best way forward for long-term savers because of employer subsidies.

It is virtually never a sensible option for people who reach 65 and lose their employer subsidy. They should withdraw and achieve better returns with less cost.

There is one KiwiSaver manager with an established record of adding value through financial analysis and expertise - Milford. I have no idea why we need a dozen managers. Three would be plenty.

My former colleague, Mike Warrington, used to advocate that a fund could be tacked on to the teams that run the “Cullen” fund or the ACC, both of whom are comparable in skill to Milford.

The rest of the managers seem like ticket clippers on the giant gravy train, not much different from the now obsolete Money Managers group.

A useful reassessment of KiwiSaver might indeed include larger sums docked from wages and matched by employers. Twelve percent seems a lot.

Another way of achieving that result would be to cut current wages by 6% and let the employer put the whole of the 12% into a locked-up savings scheme.

You can imagine the pushback from that.

Saving anything in NZ, for nearly 40% of the population, will be challenging until the economy grows without any reliance on immigration and debt.

Is the mining sector a part of that growth?

Pike River film 

THE much-acclaimed Pike River film currently showing in movie theatres is not a film about the most cynical corporate abuse of safety laws in New Zealand's history.

It is a story about the resilience of two middle-aged West Coast women, unexceptional bar their dogged pursuit of their goal - to bring back the ashes of their men killed when the mine exploded in 2010.

I am not a reliable judge of movie excellence, having changed my car more often than visited a movie theatre, certainly in the last 50 years.

But nobody could fail to admire the excellence of the two NZ actresses who converted the film into a high-octane emotional drama.

My regret is that their story was told without any useful discussion of what some would regard as corporate manslaughter, and without any use of the wonderful book "Tragedy at Pike River Mine" written by Rebecca Macfie.

The Christchurch author/journalist, Macfie, was widely recognised as New Zealand's best female business journalist on the back of her great book, maybe bracketed with Tim Hunter and Pattrick Smellie as the best of either gender of business journalists.

Macfie's research and coverage led to the country's recognition that the Pike River explosion was almost as inevitable as a puddle after torrential rain.

The level of cynicism that led to miners being bribed to work in a clearly under-protected, gassy mine was brilliantly uncovered by Macfie.

The sole ventilation shaft, the unusable safety ladder, the useless “safe room”, the inoperable gas sensors, the cigarette packets found deep in the mine, the extreme gas levels - Macfie exposed these stupidities, and was not challenged.

What a great film we might have had if the story of the two women had been framed by a reminder of the real cause of the explosion - negligence - and maybe cynicism, at multiple levels.

The other error was to finish the film, rightly exposing John Key’s smile and wave leadership, but quite wrongly lionising Jacinda Ardern as the heroine who stood up for the two women in their quest to bring back the remainders of their men.

The recovery mission never happened. The mine remains a gassy tomb.

It was Winston Peters who organised robots to enter the mine when he returned to Parliament in the 2011 general election.

He became a prominent advocate for the Pike River families’ calls to re-enter the mine drift. Re-entry into the mine became a key bottom-line for NZ First in their coalition negotiations. He publicly volunteered to be one of the first people to enter the mine.

An attempt to recover the bodies was abandoned in 2011 due to safety concerns and a second explosion. The mine remains a gassy tomb.

One suspects the producer, like everyone in the film industry, was revealing his personal sentiments, rather than the truth, in how he brought his story to an end, almost deifying Ardern.

One hopes one day Macfie’s wonderful account will be the centre of a highly-relevant film which culminates in the eventual trial of the miscreants, should the police prosecute after completing the still-running investigation.

Kiwibank Tier 2 Note Offer

Kiwibank has announced an offer of Tier 2 Notes, which carry an investment grade credit rating.

The notes have a final maturity date of 12 March 2036 but are likely to be repaid at the first reset date on 12 March 2031. Similar notes from major banks, including Kiwibank, are typically repaid on the reset date. Based on current conditions, we expect an interest rate above 4.75%.

Investors will not be charged brokerage, as Kiwibank will cover these costs. The investment statement can be found on our website.

If you would like to be added to the list for this offer, please email us with your CSN and an investment amount, and we will send through a contract note.

The issue is open now and closes on Friday, 5 December at 10am. Payment is due no later than Wednesday 10 December.

Please note that due to demand, this issue is likely to be scaled.

Chris Lee

Chris Lee & Partners Ltd