Market News 9 March 2026

Johnny Lee writes

While analysts pour over company results and digest the conclusion of reporting season, the events in the Middle East have retaken centre stage and forced investors to, once again, recalculate risks within their portfolios. 

The typical response to these situations has been one of investor withdrawal, with investors choosing to pivot out of share investments, towards bonds, cash and commodities. 

The impact has been somewhat limited on the sharemarket so far. The oil price has been the main mover, up almost 30% this month. Iran contributes approximately 5% of global oil production, and borders the Strait of Hormuz, which sees 20% of global oil and gas pass through it. 

New Zealand has no major oil producers listed on our exchange. Investors must instead look to Australia, where both Woodside and Santos have risen sharply. Large scale consumers of petrol and those adjacent to these companies. airlines, airports, transportation companies and the like, have been among the most negatively impacted. 

The move in the oil price does carry implications for our inflation rate and, accordingly, interest rates. While petrol has diminished over time in terms of weighting, it remains an important driver of household spending across the country. 

The more relevant consideration will be whether the spike in the oil price is temporary or enduring. The Reserve Bank has shown willingness to look through temporary spikes in the quarterly inflation figures, but a prolonged conflict would jeopardise that logic. 

This uncertainty has already claimed a scalp, with Property for Industry announcing the postponement of its proposed 6.5year bond offer. Bond issues have been noticeably infrequent this year, a trend driven by both weak issuance over the COVID years (bonds which would now be maturing) and a preference to finance outside the listed bond market. 

The key risk for now looks to be escalation, and the possibility of a broader impact on supply chain management. Expect share markets globally to be volatile in the shortterm. 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Prior to these developments, reporting season saw a number of companies move over the course of February. The overall index rose around 2% in February, on the back of what was ultimately a cautiously positive reporting season. 

A2 Milk was the star, trading up nearly 20% after its result. Its result showed revenue growth of 18.8%  driven by both strong growth and favourable exchange rate movements. Growth was seen across the board, and the company remains hopeful that a recovery is underway in Chinese birth rates, following a lift in marriage rates in 2025. 

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare climbed modestly, up 2% after its update late in the month. FPH upgraded guidance for the full year, with growth seen in hospital demand. Tariffs remain a question mark, but the company reasserted its view that its strategy and direction would remain the same for now and focus on the longterm. 

Auckland Airport enjoyed a strong response to its result, trading up nearly 10% before falling back following the actions in Iran. Traveller numbers are up across the board, both domestic and international, while development within the Auckland Airport infrastructure remains on track. The dividend was increased, and outlook for the full year was increased at the bottom end. 

Genesis Energy saw its share price sink, following the announcement of its capital raising. This is not particularly unusual with offers of this size, as buyers elect to leave the market and participate in the offer instead. Genesis fell 8% over the month. 

Fletcher Building had a weak February, falling 5% over the month. While the result itself was broadly in line with expectations, the company published weak guidance, suggesting a meaningful recovery would not occur until at least next year. No dividend was declared, as the company heads towards three successive years with no dividend return. 

The company remains focused on controlling what it can: costs, capital discipline and continued portfolio simplification. This simplification may mean more asset sales from within the group. Indeed, Fletcher Buildings business may look very different this time next year. 

Air New Zealand also declined 5% last month, after posting a worsethanexpected result to its beleaguered shareholders. The airline made a first half loss of $59 million, after warning of a $30 to $55 million dollar loss a few months prior. 

Continued delays in engine maintenance drove the result, limiting the companys ability to plan and sell additional capacity. Unfortunately, the company forecasts a similar result in the second half, although it notes that dialogue concerning compensation from the engine manufacturers remains ongoing. 

Februarys reporting season was, overall, cautiously optimistic, and led to the index rising for the month. The subsequent breakout of conflict across the Middle East largely reversed these gains, and highlights just how quickly volatility can be introduced to the world. 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Below is a brief update of three share offers seen this month, provided in response to client request: 

Contact Energys offer is now closed, with the price trading well in excess of the $8.75 offer price for the duration of the offer period. The $75 million raised (compared to a $9,800 million market capitalisation) was relatively small and will likely see scaling. 

Genesis Energys offer closes on the 17th of March. The share price has declined since opening to around $2.24, but remains above the $2.05 offer price. With the ongoing volatility surrounding the Middle East, investors may choose to wait until nearer the 17th before making their final investment decision. 

Santana Minerals offer closes on the 13th. This offer is at a firm price of 90 cents Australian, equivalent to perhaps $1.07, which is similar to the onmarket price. While brokerage is a consideration, shareholders will be carefully watching the price to ensure they do not pay a price in excess of the value of the shares.

Genesis Energy Rights Share Offer

Genesis Energys $300 million rights issue opened on 4 March. This offer has been priced at $2.05.

The Crown has already confirmed it will participate in the raise.

 Shareholders on the register as at the close of business 26 February will be entitled to buy 1 new share for every 7.9 held. Applications must be made online through the website: www.shareoffer.co.nz/genesis and only require a CSN and bank account details.

Property For Industry Bond Offer

PFI has announced an offer of 6.5year senior secured fixed rate bonds.

More details are expected shortly.

At this stage, given current market conditions, we are expecting it to offer a coupon of around 5.00%.

If you would like to register your interest in this offer, pending further information, please contact us with the amount you wish to invest and the CSN you wish to use.

_ _  _  _ _ _ _ _ _

Travel

10 March  New Plymouth David Colman

11 March  Palmerston North David Colman

12 March – Nelson – Edward Lee

13 March – Lower Hutt – Fraser Hunter

Chris Lee & Partners Ltd