Chris Lee & Partners Ltd

Market News - 11 May 2026

Johnny Lee writes:

The collapse of US budget airline Spirit Airlines has raised two important questions for investors, one regarding the short-term future of aviation, and the other contemplating the more philosophical question of anti-competition regulation and its role in the modern economy.

Spirit Airlines was an “ultra-low-cost airline”, similar to RyanAir in Europe or arguably Jetstar more locally. Spirit sought to offer lower prices than its peers, in exchange for reduced service and charging fees for options such as food or a paper ticket.

This business model was placed under extreme stress in March following the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The soaring oil price led to the company making huge short-term losses, an experience shared by most aviation companies at the moment.

Spirit had also developed a reputation for poor service over the years, with formal surveys ranking them among the lowest for customer satisfaction. One survey from 2025 ranked Spirit as having the worst corporate reputation in the United States.

Spirit had encountered financial difficulties a number of times in its history, even filing for bankruptcy on several occasions. The airline had raised alarm bells as recently as mid-April, formally seeking a bailout from the US Government in exchange for a controlling stake in the company. However, by May 1, the company had announced immediate cessation of all activities and by May 2 the company had flown its last flight.

Whether Spirit’s collapse is due to jet fuel pricing, reputation or a third possible reason, discussed below, will be up for debate. 

What is undeniable is that airlines, including our own Air New Zealand, will be facing intense short-term stress at present. The elevated cost of fuel is forcing all airlines to reconsider their staffing and capacity requirements and cutting back services which simply cannot be run profitably.

Locally, the effects have been notable. Air New Zealand has now completed a third round of domestic route cuts and has already begun lifting prices for forward sales. 

This stress is being reflected Qantas’ share price is down 20% this year, while Ryanair is down 27%. Air New Zealand has fallen 30%.

For Air New Zealand, analysts are now expecting the company to announce significant losses this year, with further losses anticipated in 2027. This decade had already been one to forget for the company, with a string of large losses throughout the COVID period. 

The difficulty now will be in how the company can recoup the losses it has made. While the obvious answer may be to “lift prices”, this will act as a significant disincentive for travellers, especially those with flexibility around their travel.

Government ownership will be helpful, especially if conditions worsen and additional capital is required. Fortunately, the taxpayer has consistently expressed its availability for such bailouts, citing the necessity of having a national airline.

Ideally, conditions across the Strait of Hormuz moderate and the oil price stabilises nearer January levels. From there, discussions can be had with regards to insulating the airline from future shocks, if at all possible. Share buybacks, which were a feature of the company’s capital programme just last year, may need to be shelved.

The second thought for investors to consider is that of anti-competitive behaviour and the legislation surrounding this topic. 

Spirit received a bid from a competitor, JetBlue, in 2022. Its shareholders voted to approve the deal. However, the US administration at the time blocked the takeover in 2024, citing fears that allowing two competitors to merge would result in less competition.

Some now argue that the decision to block the takeover has contributed to the failing, itself resulting in reduced competition.

This is never an easy decision for regulators. The benefit of hindsight is not available when these judgment calls are made, and no one in 2024 would have foreseen the events occurring now across the Middle East.

Such regulatory interventions are rare in New Zealand. Auckland Airport, Sky TV and The Warehouse are examples where regulators have blocked corporate activity, usually on “Market power” or “National importance” grounds. More recent transactions, such as the Contact Energy tie up with Manawa, or the Gull merger with NPD, have seen approval.

The collapse of Spirit Airlines should serve as a reminder for investors, particularly those persisting with an Air New Zealand shareholding. Conditions for the sector are clearly difficult, and 2026 is unlikely to be stellar year for shareholders.

Air New Zealand next reports in August.

a2 Milk

Three other major developments occurred last week, each of which saw significant price movements across the New Zealand market.

The first announcement came from a2 Milk, which announced a voluntary recall of some of its USA label Infant Milk Formula product.

The recall follows the detection of cereulide in a small batch of its products, manufactured by Synlait Milk. Cereulide can induce nausea and vomiting shortly after ingestion, and although there have no incidents yet of infant illness as a result of the contamination, the company is taking no chances and is recalling all 63,078 tins in the batch.

Cereulide contamination has led to at least two other infant formula recalls this year, with both Nestle and Danone recalling product in January.

While the recall is not financially relevant to a2, Infant Milk Formula is a very sensitive market and maintaining a strong reputation for safety standards is a crucial part of the trust in the sector, especially for an exported product.

The share price of ATM fell 10% following the announcement, shedding about $600 million of market capitalisation. Year to date, the share price is down 25%. 

Gentrack

The second market development came from technology company Gentrack, which provided a market update, formally downgrading its earnings expectations.

Gentrack now expects revenue of between $229 million and $238 million, about 10% lower than previous guidance late last year. This compares to 2025’s figure of $230 million.

On the same announcement last week, Gentrack announced its intentions to initiate a buyback of its shares. This has been partly driven by an apparent surplus of cash on hand, and a view that the share price remains well below fair value. The full year update last year reported a net cash position of $85 million.

The share price has plummeted this year, marking it as one of the worst performers of 2026. Over the last 12 months, the share price is down around 70%, seeing the market capitalisation move from $1.3 billion to today’s figure of nearer $450 million. 

The company has framed the update as “prioritising growth and global leadership over short term EBITDA”. While the market did not reward this decision, the question now will be whether the enormous decline in value is justified, and whether the company can rebuild confidence in its ability to convert opportunity into sustainable, recurring revenue.

Infratil 

The last development of note was a more positive one, after Infratil announced the signing of a major new customer within its data centre business, CDC. 

CDC is 49.7% owned by Infratil.

The new contract is for 30 years, and the 555-megawatt capacity will bring CDC’s total contracted capacity to over 1 gigawatt. This new deal is almost half of the total operating capacity currently in Australia.

The identity of the customer was not disclosed in the agreement, beyond being “US-based”. 

The deal will be transformative for Infratil and is expected to be part of a strategy to deliver $2 billion of EBITDAF once fully deployed. It is simply an outstanding achievement, and further cements Infratil as one of the great success stories across our listed market.

The agreement will, of course, require significant investment from CDC. Infratil’s announcement stated that CDC now expected capital expenditure to be approximately $4 billion in the next financial year. This will not require further shareholder equity, although Infratil stresses that this is based on CDC’s “current growth plan”. 

CDC recently received a credit rating from Moody’s, which has improved access to funding and given the company more options to fuel its growth. 

It would be fair to say that data centres are a controversial topic for some. Whether with respect to the environment impacts of operating the centres, the use of Artificial Intelligence across society or simply the sustainability of the growth seen in the sector, data centres are a huge part of the global growth story. The proliferation of these facilities has led to some impressive share price growth, especially in the US. 

Infratil’s share price soared on the news, rising above $15 a share to a new record high. With almost exactly a billion shares on issue, this $15 billion valuation places it behind only Meridian ($15.7b) and Fisher and Paykel Healthcare ($21.1b), having now surpassed Auckland Airport ($14.4b).

At a time when most growth stocks are struggling, Infratil continues to find success with its data centre business. If these developments conclude successfully and these long-term revenues begin to accumulate, further share price gains are likely to follow. 

Travel

28 May - Kerikeri - David Colman

29 May - Whangarei - David Colman

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Market News 4 May 2026

David Colman writes:

I was pleased to attend the inaugural NZX Resources & Exploration Investor Day which was held at the NZICC on Friday 24 April.

The event allowed mining companies with projects in New Zealand at various stages of development to present and meet with prospective investors, industry representatives, and each other.

The New Zealand mining industry has a strong focus on gold mining, with larger projects such as Santana Mineral’s Rise and Shine deposit and OceanaGold’s Wharekirauponga deposit being rare examples of gold resources in excess of a million ounces (there are estimated to be less than 500 mines globally with deposits of over 1 million ounces with less than 200 classified as producing mines) but there are other resources targeted.

Hon Shane Jones, NZ Minister for Resources, was a key speaker at the event and expanded on the government’s Fast Track Approval legislation, Minerals Strategy to 2040, and Critical Minerals List which have been established to unlock New Zealand’s mineral potential.

The Critical minerals list identifies 37 minerals from Aggregate to Zirconium that are economically vital, vulnerable to supply disruption, and/or assist in the gaining of other critical minerals.

Demand for the minerals (many of which support renewable energy, medical technology, and other uses demanded by developed countries) is expected to increase rapidly.

Mining initiatives in New Zealand face regulatory hurdles and must address environmental and safety concerns from the local and wider communities with the Fast Track approach seen as easing the transition from explorer to producer.

Discussions regarding government policy in line with unlocking the range of minerals include promoting more royalties to local affected regions and limiting the Department of Conservation’s (DOC) role in mining decisions.

The mining sector already contributes significantly to the economy and government plans to increase mining export revenue are intended to help fund New Zealand’s standard of living and attract foreign investment.

Several attendees were keen to reference a bullish investment attractiveness ranking produced by the Fraser Institute in 2024, which largely due to the Fast-Track Approvals Act, ranked New Zealand 12th in a list of 350 countries and states. No Australian states were in the top 15 then.

Notably, it is a volatile study with survey results varying greatly from one release to the next. The more recent study by the Fraser Institute, released in February 2026, showed New Zealand has now slipped to 40th with several Australian states back near the top of the study.

The NZX has welcomed several mining companies to its exchange of late with entrants to the sector attracted by pro-industry policies, fast-track consenting, historically high commodity prices, a weaker NZD, and hopes that New Zealand will provide an attractive investment environment.

Below I provide descriptions of each company present at the event.

Endura (privately held – no shares listed)

Endura is a private Australian company with strategic plans to build an ASX-listed portfolio of gold and copper mines in Tier 1 jurisdictions including New Zealand.

The company’s primary asset is the fully permitted Snowy River Gold Mine on the West Coast of the South Island.

The Snowy River Project ‘Birthday Reef’ was originally discovered in 1905.

Two shafts were mined to a depth of 800 metres producing over 700,000 ounces before the collapse of the Blackwater Shaft in 1951 brought the project to an end.

The mine was still profitable before its closure and is still considered a rich and consistent gold reef of world class.

Snowy River is currently being developed by Endura with first gold production expected by the end of 2026.

Endura’s presence at a New Zealand hosted event may well signal the company is considering a listing on both the ASX and NZX.

Minerals Exploration (NZX code: MEX)

MEX (formerly known as Uvre) listed late last year and is focused on brownfields gold exploration in New Zealand.

Brownfields refers to the company’s exploration in both the North and South Islands focusing on underexplored areas with historically rich mineral deposits.

Norman Seckold is the company’s chairman and was a founder and former chairman of Santana Minerals.

Executive Director, Brett Mitchell has been involved in corporate finance for over 25 years and has founded, financed and managed many companies (listed and non-listed) and is the director of a corporate advisory and equity capital markets firm.

Peter Zitnan is the NZ based CEO and chief geologist. He has explored for minerals in Finland, Austria, Japan and Slovakia. In the latter he was involved in the discovery of an estimated one million-ounce plus gold resource in the Western Carpathian Mountains but due to legal, environmental and local barriers it has not been mined.

MEX’s North Island portfolio comprises the advanced Waitekauri Gold Project and the Waiorongomai Project (under application) both in the Hauraki Goldfields.

Waitekauri, is MEX’s primary project and is located close to four over-million-ounce gold and silver deposits and immediately along strike from OceanaGold’s 2.2 million-ounce Wharekirauponga deposit.

MEX’s Waiorongomai application area covers a historic brownfields epithermal goldfield.

In the South Island MEX has two projects in the Otago Goldfields: Invincible and Oturehua which are positioned near major deposits such as Oceania’s Macraes mine and Santana’s Bendigo-Ophir discovery.

MEX’s approach is consistent with the mining industry of today where exploration is centred on known areas of historic mining.

New Talisman Gold Mines (NZX code: NTL)

New Talisman Gold (formerly Heritage Gold NZ Limited) holds a mining permit and an exploration permit over the Talisman Gold mine project in the Hauraki Gold Field.

The company recently completed a strategic review following a difficult 2025 where bulk sampling efforts had disappointing results.

Further funding is required to progress a program aimed at converting inferred resources into measured and indicated categories, growing the company’s resource base, and to provide technical information in support of future feasibility studies and planning infrastructure needs.

Survival for the business has relied on multiple capital raisings, such as rights issues, for many years and the recent rights issue raised $1.3 million which was well short of the approximate $7.6 million required to fully implement the strategic plan. I suspect the company holds the record for the highest number of rights issues (8) for an NZX firm.

The company has been listed for almost 40 years and is an example of just how long, and how much capital is required, for a mining endeavour to even aspire to become an economic mine.

Rua Gold (NZX code: RGI)

Rua Gold is an exploration company (15% held by New Zealand investors), focused on two prospective high-grade gold projects with one in Reefton (Auld Creek) and another in the Hauraki goldfield (Glamorgan).

The Company has submitted its application for its Auld Creek Project to be considered under the Fast-Track process as a starter mine in the Reefton Goldfield.

If successful, RGI can then progress towards securing mining permits, resource consents, water use permissions, and wildlife approvals, through the Fast Track Approval process.

RGI acknowledges support of Ngāti Waewae, the Reefton and West Coast communities, and government stakeholders. It noted that OceanaGold helped provide environmental baseline data, which was required for its submission.

Simon Delander, Vice President anticipates a decision on the application for inclusion on the FTA over the coming three months.

The Reefton Project is intended to ultimately include the mining of gold and antimony.

Antimony is on the Critical Minerals list and is used in flame retardants, batteries, and infrared sensors among other uses. If the mine becomes operational it would be an important source of a mineral of increasing geopolitical significance.

Santana Minerals (NZX & ASX code: SMI)

Santana Minerals discovered the most significant single gold deposit in New Zealand in over 40 years at the Bendigo-Ophir project, about 20 km north of Cromwell in Central Otago. 

The company is well-known to our readers and is working through the Fast Track Approval process to gain consent to develop an environmentally responsible, economically sustainable mining project.

The project, if consented, will involve open cast mines and eventually underground mining that will provide up to 300 jobs, produce 120,000 ounces of gold per annum, $6 billion dollars of revenue, and an estimated $1 billion in taxes and royalties over the life of the mine.

This project will be followed closely by the industry due to its prominence and that it is already partway through the consenting process with the expert panel’s decision expected on 29 October.

Taiko Critical Minerals (NZX code: TCM)

Taiko Critical Minerals (formerly known as TiGa Mines and Metas) is focused on mining ilmenite, garnet, zircon, gold and rare earth elements (all on the Critical Minerals list) in the Barryton area of the West Coast.

Resource consent to mine minerals and heavy metals on private farmland at the Barrytown Flats on the West Coast, New Zealand was granted in April 2024.

In October last year TCM was also granted a resource consent for a minerals separation plant at Rapahoe with the new plant intended to process minerals into final value-added products for export.

Its drilling campaign revealed a resource base suggesting a 20 year-plus mine life.

Robert Brand, Tāiko Managing Director, provided the company’s financial model report in mid-March which assumes life of mine revenue of over US$3 billion.

The same announcement noted the company is expected to complete a Definitive Feasibility Study later this year and is finalising its application to be considered under the Fast-Track Approvals Bill.

A recent survey of the global market for the Barrytown Minerals Project ilmenite and garnet products showed growing demand.

Chatham Rock Phosphate (Toronto (TSX-V) code: NZP.V and NZX code: CRP)

Chatham Rock Phosphate first listed in October 2006 initially on the NZAX (the now discontinued NZX Alternative Market for small issuers).

CRP’s ambitions are to supply New Zealand sourced phosphate to the local and international agricultural sector.

Its ultimate aim is to obtain consent for its Chatham Rise initiative where phosphate rich nodules lie on the seafloor 400m below sea level. Plans include effectively vacuum the nodules up and process them on board a ship with unused material dropped back on the seafloor.

The Environmental Protection Authority refused to consent the mining of the Chatham Rise seabed in February 2015 but the company is preparing to apply again for consent in the years ahead.

CEO, Chris Castle is confident that in time the project will make sense to a favourable government and will be permitted but has the difficult and costly task of convincing an authority that the projects merits outweigh the environmental concerns.

The idea of locally extracting phosphate, used in fertiliser, for the farms of New Zealand instead of importing largely from Morocco is still a novel one especially from a supply security perspective.

Admittedly, a New Zealand marine minerals sector still seems a long way off – Manuka Resources, which withdrew its application to mine iron sands off the Taranaki coast seafloor after the Fast Track Approvals panel issued a draft decision to decline its subsidiary TTR’s application in February, did not present at the event.

Jetex

Jetex was a last-minute inclusion at the event. It is not listed.

The US-owned, and Denver based, oil and gas junior has applied for a permit to drill for gas near the Huntly power station in Waikato.

It is seeking to target gas contained deep underground in unmined parts of the Renown and Kupakupa coal seams just north of Huntly (conveniently close to coal-burning Huntly power station).

Jetex applied for a permit for two wells recently, committing to drill them within three years if permitted with hopes of reviving previous Solid Energy coal gas extraction plans in the Waikato region.

Horizontal drilling (or HDD) is planned, which allows for drilling multiple holes from a single rig, significantly reducing environmental impact and surface disruption. The technique is commonly used to steer within the coal seam, creating long, in-seam boreholes that maximize the exposure to gas-bearing coal, increasing production efficiency.

The company is aware that New Zealand production has halved since 2000 with imminent closure anticipated for the giant Maui Field.

The Government has implemented new guidelines effective September 2025 for increased oil and gas permitting but high gas prices have already seen gas reliant companies close. 

Jetex’s plans are a rare sign of activity in the domestic oil and gas exploration industry.

New Zealand mining is conducted under scrutiny and many of the companies in attendance still have considerable work ahead of them.

They face known and unknown challenges before they can extract resources and sell them.

The prices of the minerals can be volatile affecting the financial models the companies have based their projects’ futures on.

Timelines to production can extend from months to years.

Environmental concerns and community resistance can outweigh the projected financial, and other, benefits.

For now, the Fast Track Approval process is seen as an attractive option for explorers to more quickly progress to producers.

I welcome the various companies’ efforts in a country that cannot ignore financial opportunities if it wishes to afford a high standard of living.

There is much more information regarding the projects above available on their respective websites and we encourage seeking advice before considering investing in any of the above listed companies.

Travel

22 April - Auckland (Ellerslie) - Edward Lee

23 April - Auckland (Albany) - Edward Lee

28 April - Wellington - Edward Lee

6 May - Christchurch - Johnny Lee

28 May - Kerikeri - David Colman

29 May - Whangarei - David Colman

9 June – Blenheim - Chris Lee