Chris Lee & Partners Ltd

Market News 9 March 2026

Johnny Lee writes

While analysts pour over company results and digest the conclusion of reporting season, the events in the Middle East have retaken centre stage and forced investors to, once again, recalculate risks within their portfolios. 

The typical response to these situations has been one of investor withdrawal, with investors choosing to pivot out of share investments, towards bonds, cash and commodities. 

The impact has been somewhat limited on the sharemarket so far. The oil price has been the main mover, up almost 30% this month. Iran contributes approximately 5% of global oil production, and borders the Strait of Hormuz, which sees 20% of global oil and gas pass through it. 

New Zealand has no major oil producers listed on our exchange. Investors must instead look to Australia, where both Woodside and Santos have risen sharply. Large scale consumers of petrol and those adjacent to these companies. airlines, airports, transportation companies and the like, have been among the most negatively impacted. 

The move in the oil price does carry implications for our inflation rate and, accordingly, interest rates. While petrol has diminished over time in terms of weighting, it remains an important driver of household spending across the country. 

The more relevant consideration will be whether the spike in the oil price is temporary or enduring. The Reserve Bank has shown willingness to look through temporary spikes in the quarterly inflation figures, but a prolonged conflict would jeopardise that logic. 

This uncertainty has already claimed a scalp, with Property for Industry announcing the postponement of its proposed 6.5year bond offer. Bond issues have been noticeably infrequent this year, a trend driven by both weak issuance over the COVID years (bonds which would now be maturing) and a preference to finance outside the listed bond market. 

The key risk for now looks to be escalation, and the possibility of a broader impact on supply chain management. Expect share markets globally to be volatile in the shortterm. 

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Prior to these developments, reporting season saw a number of companies move over the course of February. The overall index rose around 2% in February, on the back of what was ultimately a cautiously positive reporting season. 

A2 Milk was the star, trading up nearly 20% after its result. Its result showed revenue growth of 18.8%  driven by both strong growth and favourable exchange rate movements. Growth was seen across the board, and the company remains hopeful that a recovery is underway in Chinese birth rates, following a lift in marriage rates in 2025. 

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare climbed modestly, up 2% after its update late in the month. FPH upgraded guidance for the full year, with growth seen in hospital demand. Tariffs remain a question mark, but the company reasserted its view that its strategy and direction would remain the same for now and focus on the longterm. 

Auckland Airport enjoyed a strong response to its result, trading up nearly 10% before falling back following the actions in Iran. Traveller numbers are up across the board, both domestic and international, while development within the Auckland Airport infrastructure remains on track. The dividend was increased, and outlook for the full year was increased at the bottom end. 

Genesis Energy saw its share price sink, following the announcement of its capital raising. This is not particularly unusual with offers of this size, as buyers elect to leave the market and participate in the offer instead. Genesis fell 8% over the month. 

Fletcher Building had a weak February, falling 5% over the month. While the result itself was broadly in line with expectations, the company published weak guidance, suggesting a meaningful recovery would not occur until at least next year. No dividend was declared, as the company heads towards three successive years with no dividend return. 

The company remains focused on controlling what it can: costs, capital discipline and continued portfolio simplification. This simplification may mean more asset sales from within the group. Indeed, Fletcher Buildings business may look very different this time next year. 

Air New Zealand also declined 5% last month, after posting a worsethanexpected result to its beleaguered shareholders. The airline made a first half loss of $59 million, after warning of a $30 to $55 million dollar loss a few months prior. 

Continued delays in engine maintenance drove the result, limiting the companys ability to plan and sell additional capacity. Unfortunately, the company forecasts a similar result in the second half, although it notes that dialogue concerning compensation from the engine manufacturers remains ongoing. 

Februarys reporting season was, overall, cautiously optimistic, and led to the index rising for the month. The subsequent breakout of conflict across the Middle East largely reversed these gains, and highlights just how quickly volatility can be introduced to the world. 

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Below is a brief update of three share offers seen this month, provided in response to client request: 

Contact Energys offer is now closed, with the price trading well in excess of the $8.75 offer price for the duration of the offer period. The $75 million raised (compared to a $9,800 million market capitalisation) was relatively small and will likely see scaling. 

Genesis Energys offer closes on the 17th of March. The share price has declined since opening to around $2.24, but remains above the $2.05 offer price. With the ongoing volatility surrounding the Middle East, investors may choose to wait until nearer the 17th before making their final investment decision. 

Santana Minerals offer closes on the 13th. This offer is at a firm price of 90 cents Australian, equivalent to perhaps $1.07, which is similar to the onmarket price. While brokerage is a consideration, shareholders will be carefully watching the price to ensure they do not pay a price in excess of the value of the shares.

Genesis Energy Rights Share Offer

Genesis Energys $300 million rights issue opened on 4 March. This offer has been priced at $2.05.

The Crown has already confirmed it will participate in the raise.

 Shareholders on the register as at the close of business 26 February will be entitled to buy 1 new share for every 7.9 held. Applications must be made online through the website: www.shareoffer.co.nz/genesis and only require a CSN and bank account details.

Property For Industry Bond Offer

PFI has announced an offer of 6.5year senior secured fixed rate bonds.

More details are expected shortly.

At this stage, given current market conditions, we are expecting it to offer a coupon of around 5.00%.

If you would like to register your interest in this offer, pending further information, please contact us with the amount you wish to invest and the CSN you wish to use.

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Travel

10 March  New Plymouth David Colman

11 March  Palmerston North David Colman

12 March – Nelson – Edward Lee

13 March – Lower Hutt – Fraser Hunter

Chris Lee & Partners Ltd

Market News - 3 March 2026

Johnny Lee writes: 

HOT on the heels of its competitor Contact Energy, Genesis Energy has published its results and announced its own capital raising. 

The results would have pleased most shareholders. Net profit climbed 36%, which led to a modest increase in the dividend to 7.30 cents per share. While this is significantly lower than the dividends seen prior to the Kupe closure, it represents an increase on last years 7.13 cents per share. 

Development work continues. The Edgecumbe solar farm is now proceeding, Leeston is on track for a decision by the end of the year, and Foxton will apply for fast-track consent in the third quarter of this year. Various wind projects are also in the pipeline, including Genesis agreement to explore the viability of offshore wind in Taranaki. 

Batteries and biomass are also progressing. The battery storage project at Huntly remains on schedule and within budget, and is expected to be operational late this year. At the same time, Genesis will make its final decision regarding the expansion of this project. Additional groups are being sought to establish its biomass supply, as agreements with the existing trio Carbona, Foresta and Natures Flame, progress. 

The important news for shareholders, however, was the decision to raise $400 million via an equity issue, broken into two components. 

$100 million was secured almost immediately. This was done via a placement at $2.15 per share and closed well oversubscribed. These shares have already been settled and are trading on market. Shareholders of these new shares are also eligible for the second leg of the offer. 

That second leg is $300 million and is being raised via a separate offer at $2.05, a further discount of 10 cents per share. $300 million equates to a ratio of 1 new share for every 7.9 held, meaning that a shareholder with 10,000 shares will be entitled to 1,265 new shares, or $2,593 worth of new shares. 

Genesis is, of course, majority owned by the Government. The Crown has already confirmed it will participate in this offer to maintain this majority, meaning that full subscription is likely.

The $400 million will initially be used to reduce debt, before being used to accelerate its development pipeline.  

Combined with the $525 million raised from Contact, this Genesis offer will mark $925 million raised from two of our largest companies in the past month. This has an impact, with a notable increase in selling across the market as investors look to raise funds. With the shares now trading ex-entitlement, there have also been some shareholders electing to sell their equivalent entitlement, with the plan to buy them back at $2.05. 

The Genesis offer opens on Wednesday (4 March). Applications are made online, through the www.shareoffer.co.nz/genesis website. 

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THE influx of recent capital raisings may have led to one detail escaping shareholder notice.  

Santana Minerals has previously announced its intention to raise $30 million by way of a Share Purchase Plan, at a price of 90 Australian cents. Existing shareholders can apply for up to $24,948 AUD worth of additional shares. 

The announcement included the following paragraph: 

When determining the amount (if any) by which to scale back an application, Santana may take into account a number of factors, including any gaming by Eligible Shareholders . . .  [and] the extent to which Eligible Shareholders have sold or bought additional Shares after the Record Date.

While gaming is left undefined, those shareholders considering a partial sale of their shares above 90 cents AUD to fund the take up of those rights should be aware that this action may jeopardise their application. 

Unless extended, the Share Purchase Plan closes on 13 March. Applications are made through https://santana.capitalraisings.com. The online form requires a Validation Number, which was e-mailed to shareholders on Friday 27 February.

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ANOTHER new listing is coming to the NZX, as Taiko Critical Minerals plans to join the board this Thursday (5 March).  

Taiko, named after the petrel endemic to the area, intends to construct and operate a mine in Barrytown on the West Coast. The companys focus will be on mining and processing ilmenite, garnet and zircon. The company plans to develop both the mine and a separation plant, before exporting from Lyttleton and Timaru. 

Ilmenite is used to make titanium and titanium dioxide. It is used across many industries, including aircraft engines, artificial joints, golf clubs and as a pigment in products ranging from paint and sunscreen to food colouring 

Garnet is used in the manufacturing of waterjets, while zircon is primarily used in the ceramics industry. 

To give some context as to the scale of this operation, the independent economic assessment report estimates Taiko will create 137 jobs at an average of around $116,000 per job, produce $63 million per year in export earnings, and contribute around $1.5 million per year in the form of royalties. 

The project will have a significant impact on the local community. The Barrytown statistical area encompasses around 1,000 people, with a median income below the national average. 

At the reference price applied, the company will begin with a market capitalisation of around $45 million, although the first trade on Thursday will determine the markets perception of its value. 

The company has a number of shareholders already, and the listing will provide some liquidity for this cohort. Most of its shareholders are registered in Australia, with perhaps a third registered to New Zealand addresses. As the company raises capital throughout its development, this number will no doubt evolve. 

Local community engagement has already occurred and remains ongoing, with the company accepting some limitations on its operations in response to this. This includes limiting truck movements – to avoid drop-off and pick-up times for the local school, and agreeing to mine only during daytime hours. 

The company has applied under the Fast Track process for resource consent. This also remains ongoing. Local iwi have already expressed support for the project. 

Taiko will mark the fifth mining company to list on our exchange in recent years, alongside Rua Gold, Santana, Manuka and Minerals Exploration. While these projects have some time before hitting full production, the NZX should be pleased that after a decade of relatively few new listings, a growing number of companies are choosing to list on our exchange.

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Contact Energy Retail Share Offer

Contact Energys $75 million retail offer is open and closes on Friday 6 March.  Existing, New Zealand-based shareholders can apply for up to $100,000 worth of new shares, at a price of $8.75 per share. The pro-rata allocation is approximately 6%.

Applications are made online, through the website: www.contactshareoffer.co.nz. Payment is made via Direct Debit. Applicants will require their Validation Number to complete the online form – this number was sent to shareholders by the share registry last week.

Genesis Energy Rights Share Offer

Genesis Energys $300 million rights issue opens on 4 March. This offer has been priced at $2.05.

The Crown has already confirmed it will participate in the raise.

Shareholders on the register as at the close of business 26 February will be entitled to buy 1 new share for every 7.9 held. Applications must be made online through the website: www.shareoffer.co.nz/genesis and only require a CSN and bank account details.

Property For Industry Bond Offer

PFI has announced an offer of 6.5-year senior secured fixed rate bonds.

More details are expected later this week.

At this stage, given current market conditions, we are expecting it to offer a coupon of around 5.00%. 

If you would like to register your interest in this offer, pending further information, please contact us with the amount you wish to invest and the CSN you wish to use.

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Travel 

9 March - Whanganui - David Colman

10 March - New Plymouth - David Colman

11 March - Palmerston North - David Colman

12 March – Nelson – Edward Lee

13 March – Lower Hutt – Fraser Hunter

Chris Lee & Partners Ltd