Chris Lee & Partners Ltd

Market News – 8 June 2026

Johnny Lee writes:

SpaceX

This week will see the introduction of the world’s largest ever IPO, with capital markets anticipating the imminent listing of SpaceX on the Nasdaq exchange. It will carry the symbol SPCX and is expected to begin trading on the 12th (Saturday 13th NZ time).

SpaceX was founded by Elon Musk in 2002 and focuses on three aspects – spaceflight, telecommunications and artificial intelligence.

In New Zealand, SpaceX is perhaps best known for its Starlink service, which provides internet access via satellite. This service has proven popular for those living outside the traditional fibre optic cable network, and those whose travels take them to such areas. Both One NZ and Spark utilise this network, as do various high-profile corporates like Air New Zealand.

SpaceX produced around $19 billion USD in revenue last year but reported a $4.9 billion loss. The SpaceX IPO is seeking a valuation of around $1.75 trillion, raising $75 billion in exchange for approximately 4% of the company.

Following the sale, Musk would retain a holding of nearly half the company, although he would control 82% of the voting rights. This is done by issuing so-called “Super-voting” shares, which entitles the shareholder – Musk – to additional voting rights above and beyond ordinary shares. Accordingly, investors will need confidence in Musk's vision for the company before investing.

The largest IPO ever launched (prior to SpaceX) was listed in 2019, when Saudi Aramco – the Saudi Arabian oil and gas company majority owned by the Saudi Arabian Government – sold 1.5% of the company for $25 billion.

The size of the SpaceX offer, and the history of the company’s co-founder, have led to inevitable scrutiny from capital markets. Morningstar, the American independent research house, publicly stated its opinion that SpaceX was worth nearer $780 billion – a huge sum – but less than half the figure sought.

The company’s actual value will be determined by markets upon listing on the 12th, based on buyers and sellers trading shares on market.

Much of the excitement surrounding the company is based on investor enthusiasm regarding the future ambitions of the company, which include “data centres in space” and “asteroid mining”. While some will dismiss these ideas as far-fetched, others will view these as challenges to be solved and with significant financial payoffs, should they find success.

Musk’s involvement has also generated interest, both due to his status and the performance of his earlier investments.

Tesla, another company co-founded by Musk, has performed extremely well since listing in 2010. Tesla listed in 2010 at a price of $17 per share, and has undergone two stock splits – a 5 for 1 split in 2020, and a 3 for 1 split in 2022. This $1.13 adjusted price compares to a current price of nearer $420. Put another way, if one had bought $10,000 of Tesla when it first listed, this person would now own over $3 million of the same company.

This is not to say that SpaceX will follow a similar path. However, Tesla’s share price success has cultivated something of a following, particularly among young technology enthusiasts.

Should the IPO proceed as expected, Saturday promises to be an exciting day for capital markets, and could help shape expectations for a flurry of major new listings expected in 2026. 

SpaceX is not the only IPO currently navigating US capital markets. Anthropic, which owns the popular Claude AI language model, and OpenAI, which owns the even more popular ChatGPT language model, are both exploring the possibility of listing shares via IPO at near trillion-dollar valuations. 

It was only 8 years ago that Apple became the first trillion-dollar company. In 2018, Apple produced profits of $60 billion on revenues of $265 billion. OpenAI, by comparison, loses billions and has revenues in the tens of billions, not hundreds of billions.

Nevertheless, the excitement surrounding Artificial Intelligence - and the infrastructure that supports it - is palpable and leading to far more dramatic valuation multiples than we have seen previously.

The large valuations have also led to discussion around the role of Exchange Traded Funds in supporting these values.

The sheer size of these IPOs will mean US-focused ETFs, like those owned by the popular USG and USF listed on the NZX, will eventually include the companies within their portfolios, should valuations proceed as anticipated.

This has led to some observers highlighting an inherent flaw in the nature of ETFs, specifically that passive funds will be “forced” to buy (and hold) shares in the company, particularly as more shares are floated and the float-adjusted capitalisation of the company grows.

This is simply the reality of investing with ETFs. These are largely rule-based investments, and if a fund promises exposure to the largest US companies, this will see it acquire companies that fall within this mandate. Even actively managed US funds will likely carry some exposure, so as to derisk portfolios should the company outperform.

This has led to a subset of ETFs that exclude certain companies or industries. Even in Australia, there are products now that exclude the mining and financial sectors, offering choice to investors, whether their objections are moral or economic.

Those with an interest in the long-term future of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI may soon find all three included within the major US ETFs, as the initial investors in these technologies begin selling down and inviting public investment into the sector.

Exchange Traded Funds

More ETFs are listed each day.

Even in New Zealand, two new ETFs are coming to market this month, both focused on the Chinese market. The ETFs are being introduced by Smart, the division of NZX responsible for listed ETFs.

Smart has previously listed funds across international markets, including the US, Japan, Europe and Emerging Markets. These two will mark the first specific to China. While the likes of Marlin offers exposure to China, these two new ETFs will offer a passive and more diverse option.

The two funds are a China 300 ETF, and a China Science and Technology ETF.

The China 300 includes companies like BYD and CATL, the world's largest producers of electric vehicles and electric vehicle batteries. Major Chinese technology companies include Lenovo, Xiaomi, Alibaba and Tencent. The exact make-up of the fund will be announced shortly.

Both new ETFs are targeting a listing date in late June and will be tradeable on the exchange in the same way as existing funds.

Infratil Bond Issue

Infratil has announced a subordinated capital bond issue. The offer is for a 31-year bond, first redeemable after six years. Like the other similar capital bonds on our exchange (such as CEN090), the bond will be priced assuming it will mature after six years on the initial optional redemption date.

The bonds will also be listed on the NZX, allowing investors to exit the investment whenever they would like.

Infratil is to raise $150 million, with the option to accept unlimited oversubscriptions. The bond will carry an investment grade credit rating of BBB-, two notches below Infratil’s own rating (BBB+). This discrepancy is to account for the subordinated nature of the capital bond.

These bonds will carry an interest rate of 5.50%.

Investors wishing for a FIRM allocation should contact us as soon as possible with their CSN and amount they wish to invest.

Ryman Bond Offer

Ryman Healthcare is also offering a 6-year fixed-rate, senior, secured bonds.

The interest rate will be at least 5.60% per annum, fixed for the full 6-year term.

Ryman is also paying the transaction costs, meaning clients will not pay brokerage. 

Ryman is New Zealand’s largest retirement living and aged care provider, with 47 retirement villages across New Zealand and Australia. It provides homes to more than 15,500 residents and employs around 7,800 staff.

Ryman has been through a major business reset over the past two years. Its latest result showed a meaningful improvement, including its first positive free cash flow result in more than a decade, with revenue increasing to $849 million.

The company has also reduced its debt level to 27.8% (which is the lowest in the sector), has no bank debt maturing until FY31, and is continuing to release cash from asset and land sales. Ryman has indicated that its focus is now on improving aged care earnings, reducing vacant stock, lowering capital expenditure, and strengthening cash flow from its existing villages.

In our view, Ryman is now in a much better position than it was two years ago. The company has moved away from its previous high-growth development model and is now focused on cash flow, debt reduction, and disciplined capital management.

Investors wishing for a FIRM allocation should contact us as soon as possible with their CSN and amount they wish to invest.

Paraparaumu Seminar

The first of our seminars this year will be held at Southwards, Paraparaumu on July 7. Please contact us via email if you would like to attend.

New Financial Advisor Position

We are currently looking to add an experienced Financial Adviser to the Chris Lee & Partners team.

This is a long-term role based in Paraparaumu, working closely with our long-standing clients throughout New Zealand.

If you are interested in learning more, please contact us confidentially at office@chrislee.co.nz

Travel

24 June – Lower Hutt – David Colman

26 June – Napier – Edward Lee

30 June – Christchurch – Chris Lee (FULL)

1 July – Christchurch – Chris Lee (FULL)

Chris Lee & Partners Limited

Market News 2 June 2026

Johnny Lee writes:

RBNZ

THE Reserve Bank has retained the OCR at 2.25%, with the six votes evenly split between hiking and retaining the current level.

In the event of a tie, the Governor’s vote carries the decision. New Governor Anna Breman voted to keep rates at 2.25%.

This result was broadly expected, with most economists expecting the rate to remain unchanged. Investors should be under no illusions, however. The RBNZ was very clear in its wording, stating “The OCR will most likely need to increase sooner and by more than envisaged in the February statement.”

Virtually every data point has deteriorated over the last three months. Unemployment projections are worse, inflation expectations are higher, and now OCR projections are higher, with the RBNZ expecting a steeper rise to a higher neutral point.

Markets are now pricing three hikes in three meetings, resulting in an OCR of 3.00% by October, with further hikes possible as needed.

Whether oil price strength remains in the long term will be contingent on geopolitical factors well beyond the control of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Unfortunately, the story seems to change between ceasefires and bombings week-to-week, making it difficult to predict an outcome.

The RBNZ statement included a cautionary statement regarding artificial intelligence. The RBNZ highlighted the globe’s exposure to AI investment as a key risk, stating that it views US equity markets as “elevated”, and that AI “failing to meet expectations” could lead to downside risk on global growth over the long term.

The share price appreciation seen from the likes of NVIDIA has been a significant driver for US equity markets, with a valuation now approaching five and a half trillion US dollars. Its trajectory will continue to match that of US equity markets in the short term.

For now, we have four more Monetary Policy meetings left in the year – early July, early September, late October and early December. With at least three hikes expected this year, these four events promise to be both eventful and market moving. 

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 

THE New Zealand market received a significant boost last week after our largest company, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, published its financial results.

The share price rose 10% on the day, before settling 8% higher. This dragged the index higher, such is the weighting apportioned to FPH.

It was another excellent year for the respiratory care company, with revenue climbing 14% and net profit after tax climbing 24%. 

Hospital revenue has finally eclipsed the very high watermark achieved during the COVID era, with revenue from this division surpassing $1.5 billion.

Homecare also continues to move from strength to strength, as it nears the $1 billion revenue mark. 

The dividend climbed again, rising from 24 cents to 33 cents. The December dividend was 19 cents, making a total of 52 cents for the year, up 22%. The balance sheet remains in rude health, with net cash of over $400 million.

Outlook was positive, with next year’s revenue expected to climb to around $2.5 billion, while net profit is expected to reach $500 million. The company notes that certain uncontrollable factors will weigh unduly on these forecasts, including tariffs, the sea freight market and land valuations.

Fisher and Paykel’s ongoing dominance and leadership in the respiratory sector continues to impress. An ageing population continues to grow its market, and with 88% of its revenue generated from recurring sales and consumables, it is well placed to capture this opportunity in a sustainable way.

Infratil

OUR second largest company reported shortly after.

Infratil’s full-year result also saw double-digit growth, with EBITDAF climbing 11% to $989 million.

The data centre business now faces something of a moment of truth. Infratil is guiding for very significant earnings growth next year, on the back of relentless demand for “compute”.

Infratil went as far as to describe the business as “the opportunity of a lifetime”. With capital expenditure expected to approach $4 billion next year, it is clear that Infratil’s conviction in the sector will lead to the business rapidly becoming a data centre business first and foremost.

The “future build” component of CDC now makes up around 80% of the capacity pipeline, meaning that CDC is only just getting started. With strong counterparties including various Australian Government agencies, cash flows should reliably follow soon after.

Outside of CDC, business continues. Longroad, the renewables development business in the US, saw earnings climb 170% as several projects began contributing to its bottom line. 

Demand for electricity in the US is projected to increase sharply over the next decade, with data centres, electrification and manufacturing driving the increase. Indeed, Longroad is now considering a data centre focused strategy for its business.

The rest of the portfolio was far more tepid.

One NZ’s result was almost flat, with earnings up $4 million to $609 million. While mobile connections grew, this was balanced with rising costs across the business, a familiar story for shareholders of rival Spark.

Wellington Airport saw very modest earnings growth, with a decline in domestic throughput outpaced by cost control and growth in international passenger numbers. Fuel cost pressures were leading to some airlines pulling back their services, causing further short-term pessimism.

Infratil notes that continued weak migration would continue to act as a headwind on both businesses. 

The review for Qscan remains ongoing, with Infratil looking to continue its divestment programme as it looks to simplify its portfolio. Contact Energy may also provide some options for Infratil, with strong market appetite for Contact’s recent placement.

Overall, the portfolio is now worth over $20 billion, up 10%, with CDC driving much of this increase. CDC makes up around $9 billion of this figure, with One NZ worth above $3 billion and Longroad worth north of $2 billion. 

Guidance for next year is for earnings of around $1.3 to $1.4 billion, mostly driven by One NZ and CDC. However, Infratil is also planning to spend billions across its portfolio – primarily on CDC and Longroad – as the company tries to sate the demand for processing power and the energy to fuel it. 

Bond Market

THE bond market has been uncharacteristically quiet this year, with few new offers coming through for investors in the wake of significant geopolitical upheaval and a rapidly evolving interest rate environment.

Issuers, obviously, prefer to borrow when interest rates are low, particularly for long-term funding. The post-COVID environment was a good example of this, with a number of issuers raising long-dated money at rates below 2.5%. Investors then faced the choice of accepting prevailing rates or holding cash or short-dated deposits and hoping for a recovery in interest rates.

Fortunately, this dearth of new issues may be about to improve, with a number of bond issues said to be in the wings. The first of these was announced last week.

Infratil Bond Issue

Infratil has announced a subordinated capital bond issue. The offer is for a 31-year bond, first redeemable after six years. Like the other similar capital bonds on our exchange (such as CEN090), the bond will be priced assuming it will mature after six years on the initial optional redemption date.

The bonds will also be listed on the NZX, allowing investors to exit the investment whenever they would like.

Infratil is to raise $150 million, with the option to accept unlimited oversubscriptions. The bond will carry an investment grade credit rating of BBB-, two notches below Infratil’s own rating (BBB+). This discrepancy is to account for the subordinated nature of the capital bond.

The offer opens today (2 June), with FIRM offers closing at 10am on 5 June. 

These bonds will carry a minimum interest rate of 5.50%.

Investors wishing for a FIRM allocation should contact us as soon as possible with their CSN and amount they wish to invest.

Travel

8 June – Nelson – Chris Lee (FULL)

9 June – Blenheim – Chris Lee (FULL)

30 June – Christchurch – Chris Lee (FULL)

1 July – Christchurch – Chris Lee (FULL)

Chris Lee & Partners Limited